UN experts warn of ‘severe setbacks’ to South Sudan peace deal over Machar trial

JUBA – South Sudan’s peace process has suffered “severe setbacks” and the country risks a return to large-scale conflict, fueled by the trial of former Vice President Riek Machar and a significant deployment of Ugandan military forces in violation of a U.N. arms embargo, a Panel of Experts report warned.

The interim report, submitted to the U.N. Security Council last week, states that the political and security crisis escalated following President Salva Kiir Mayardit’s September 2025 suspension of Machar, the leader of the main armed opposition Sudan People’s Liberation Movement/Army in Opposition (SPLM/A-IO), from his position as First Vice President.

Machar and several other opposition figures now face criminal charges, including treason, with the political fallout causing a major faction of the SPLM/A-IO to reject the process and flee the capital, Juba. The unity government, formed under the 2018 Revitalized Agreement, is now considered by this faction to have “collapsed.”

The report detailed a deterioration of the security situation across the country, characterized by armed confrontations between signatories to the peace agreement. It notes that the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) has become increasingly reliant on “relatively indiscriminate aerial bombardments as their principal means of disrupting opposition forces.”

The most critical finding regarding external support focused on the deployment of a regional partner’s military.

“SSPDF has, however, been able to rely on the continued support of Ugandan forces, whose armed troops, tanks and armoured vehicles have remained in South Sudan since March 2025, in violation of the arms embargo established by Security Council resolution 2428 (2018) and renewed by resolution 2781 (2025),” the panel said.

“The Panel considers the presence of armed UPDF forces in South Sudan to be a violation of the arms embargo as outlined in paragraph 4 of resolution 2428 (2018),” the experts stated, referring to the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF). The UPDF has maintained a presence in the country since March 2025 as part of an operation codenamed “Mlinzi wa Kimya.”

Satellite imagery and video footage reviewed by the Panel confirmed the presence of UPDF tanks, armored vehicles, and at least three Bell 412 armed helicopters, all of which had been deployed to South Sudan, in breach of the U.N. sanctions regime.

The renewed fighting, coupled with severe flooding and a massive influx of over a million returnees and refugees fleeing conflict in the neighbouring Sudan, has driven the humanitarian situation to near-record levels.

The Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analysis cited in the report shows that an estimated 7.7 million people, or roughly 57% of the population, are facing “crisis” levels of food insecurity, with “pockets of famine reported in some of the communities most affected by renewed fighting.”

Despite the escalating crisis, government priorities appear focused on military procurement. The report noted that while the government failed to produce a budget for the current financial year, it pledged more than $600 million for the purchase of food for the SSPDF through a single-source contract.

The Panel found this expenditure highly questionable, stating that the dollar-denominated contract, “if paid in full, exceed the approved annual budget for the entire security sector” for the current financial year.

The experts concluded that “the leaders of South Sudan’s need urgent support in order to halt the alarming escalation of conflict and avoid the regrets of yet another failed peace agreement.”