Ugandans must not allow another stolen election

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Bobi Wine is the stage name of Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, a presidential candidate in the upcoming January 15 Ugandan election

Uganda’s January 15 election carries all the outward rituals of democracy, but almost none of its substance. Like our neighbours in Tanzania discovered last October, regimes that have held power for decades do not rely on the will of the people to remain in office; they rely on the machinery of manipulation, coercion and fear. Thousands of Tanzanians were killed and wounded by the regime in an election so blatantly rigged that even the African Union and the Southern African Development Community had to agree it was flawed. Unless Ugandans and the international community shine a bright light on that machinery, the same pattern will repeat itself here.

For years, many have wondered why our rulers cling so tightly to political control and economic privilege. The truth is that the system they have built cannot survive openness or competition. They know that in a genuinely free election they would be held accountable for decades of economic mismanagement and greed. They know that in a fair economy, where opportunity depends on merit rather than patronage, they would no longer be guaranteed access to the wealth they have accumulated through state power. Rigging elections and manipulating institutions are not just political strategies — they are the means through which the regime protects its economic interests and the networks that sustain it.

Rigging in Uganda is not a single act. It is not a moment in a tally centre when a figure is altered or a result is switched. Rigging is a system, woven into every stage of the electoral process, from the laws that restrict opposition campaigns, to the security forces that violently disperse our rallies, to the manipulation of voter registers, to the tampering with declaration forms.

Entire constituencies were flooded with military and police units whose purpose is not to protect citizens, but to intimidate them. We have seen the Electoral Commission operate not as an independent referee, but as an extension of the ruling party’s command structure, refusing to hold security forces accountable even when evidence of misconduct is overwhelming.

During the 2021 elections, dozens of Ugandans were killed, hundreds were abducted or disappeared. Journalists were beaten and entire districts turned into militarised zones while results forms were altered, tally sheets hidden and the nation forced to accept numbers that bore no resemblance to reality. Our people voted, and then watched as their votes were stolen. The signs we are seeing in run-up to the 2026 poll suggest the same pattern — only worse.

Already, our opposition rallies have been violently broken up. My colleagues have been beaten, injured or detained. Supporters have been arrested simply for wearing our colours.

Meanwhile, the ruling party’s recent internal primaries descended into chaos and more than 210 official losers are now standing as independents. This is not the behaviour of a confident movement; it is the sign of a regime struggling to hold itself together. That fragmentation makes the government more paranoid and more brittle. Uganda’s rulers no longer fear losing an election; they fear losing control.

If, as many anticipate, the election is again marred by fraud and manipulation, the regime is likely to move to silence criticism once again. This is a government that has repeatedly shown that when cornered, it turns to force. And in a moment when its own internal cohesion is weakening, and its leadership is preoccupied with succession, the likelihood of overreaction is higher than ever. Yet there is still hope.

First, Ugandans must continue to stand firm in their commitment to peaceful, democratic change. Every citizen who resists bribery, who refuses intimidation, who insists on their dignity, strengthens our collective resolve. Second, the world must pay attention. Silence emboldens impunity. The more visible the process is, the harder it becomes for wrongdoing to hide in the shadows. Third, the truth must be exposed. Every incident of intimidation, every misuse of security forces, every attempt to interfere with the vote must be documented and shared.

History shows that even powerful regimes fall when citizens stand together and when the world refuses to look away. Our future will not be determined by the regime’s fears, but by the people’s courage and the solidarity they receive. Uganda deserves a peaceful transition, not another stolen election.