Uganda strongman Museveni, 81, takes an early lead in count

• If Museveni wins, as early counts strongly suggest, he will have been in power for almost five decades in a country that needs change because of high youth unemployment and debt problems.
• His rival, Bobi Wine, may take legal action, like he did in 2021, and the results of the parliamentary elections could change things if the opposition gains ground.

Uganda’s strongman President Yoweri Museveni has taken a commanding lead in vote count according to preliminary results from country’s Electoral Commission (EC). The poll agency tally shows that Museveni of the National Resistance Movement (NRM) has about 75 per cent of the votes, with numbers from different updates showing between 75.38 per cent and 76.25 per cent.

This is based on tallies from more than half of the polling stations (about 59–60 per cent). His main opponent, Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, popularly known as Bobi Wine, and the leader of the National Unity Platform (NUP) is far behind with only 19.85 per cent to 21 per cent of the vote. The other six candidates are splitting the rest of the vote, according to various news outlets.

The EC, which is led by Justice Simon Byabakama, has said that the final presidential results will be announced by 5:00 PM local time (14:00 GMT) on Saturday, January 17, which is within the constitutionally required 48 hours after the polls closed.

Museveni was at about 61.7 per cent in earlier provisional numbers from a smaller sample, but the lead grew as more results from rural areas and areas where the NRM is strong were added, the Daily Monitor noted in various updates.

Since January 13, authorities in Uganda shut down the internet across the country to stop the spread of false information and incitement. Critics say this makes it harder to check the results independently, noted Reuters.

Violence Breaks Out After Uganda Presidential Election

Reports of deadly violence in the hours after Thursday’s polling have taken over the vote count updates. At least seven people died in fighting in Butambala district, which is about 55 km (35 miles) southwest of Kampala, overnight. Police called the event an attack on a polling station by “goons” with machetes, which justified the use of force in self-defense and led to 25 arrests.

There are big differences between the opposition’s stories. Local MP Muwanga Kivumbi said that security forces killed opposition supporters who were at his home waiting for parliamentary results. Some reports say that as many as 10 people died. The different stories show how deep the divisions and tensions are after the vote.

Voting on January 15 went mostly smoothly, even with a lot of security, but there were some problems with biometric machines that caused delays and extensions in many places in the East African country.

Opposition leader Bobi Wine is under house arrest

On Thursday, Bobi Wine’s NUP party said that military and police had surrounded his home in Kampala, “effectively putting him and his wife under house arrest.” This was a big step up.” The party posted on X (formerly Twitter) about security guards putting up tents inside his home compound.

Police denied formal house arrest, saying the measures were for the safety of a “person of interest.” However, the move is similar to what happened after the 2021 polls. Wine has claimed “massive fraud,” such as stuffing ballots and keeping people from voting, and has told his supporters to “protect the vote” and protest peacefully if necessary. As of noon on Friday, there had been no major protests.

The campaign backdrop is repression and high stakes

Uganda’s presidential election was between Museveni, who has been in power since 1986 after leading a guerrilla war, and Bobi Wine, who is 43 years old and appeals to Uganda’s youth (the median age is under 16) with promises of jobs, anti-corruption reforms, and an end to repression.

On his side, Museveni ran on a platform of stability, infrastructure, and economic growth. Critics say he is authoritarian because he got rid of term limits in 2005 and he is grooming his son, military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, to be his successor.

There were many reports of violence against opposition rallies, arrests, and the use of tear gas and live ammunition during the campaign. Amnesty International called it a “brutal campaign of repression” (from many sources). There were eight candidates, but it was mostly a two-horse race.

Wider Effects and International Concern

The UN Human Rights Office and others spoke out against the internet shutdown and oppressive atmosphere, saying it made it harder to keep an eye on things. People are more afraid of violence spreading because of unrest in Kenya and Tanzania.

If Museveni wins, as early counts strongly suggest, he will have been in power for almost five decades in a country that needs change because of high youth unemployment and debt problems. Wine may take legal action, like he did in 2021, and the results of the parliamentary elections could change things if the opposition gains ground.

The 2026 election in Uganda raises more questions about how to make the transition to democracy in countries that have been ruled for a long time. As the counting goes on with tight security and limited information, the next few hours will show whether things stay calm or get worse.

Read also: Understanding the state of investment in Uganda post 2026 elections