Jok Madut warns Kiir risks total isolation if leadership void continues

NAIROBI — South Sudanese anthropologist Jok Madut Jok has warned that the government risks facing a catastrophic “circle of isolation” if a major crisis erupts, cautioning that a deepening leadership void is causing even the President’s closest support bases to mentally disengage from the state.

Speaking on Sunday, Jok argued that widespread silence and localized resentment across the country are creating a dangerous scenario where communities may choose not to defend the administration in a future emergency, instead viewing it as a problem for the President’s own village to solve.

“I think that level of localized politics has gone very far against the government so far,” Jok told Kuir E Garang in his Kuirthiy TV program on Facebook. “There is an impending disaster, and people are saying, ‘Let them deal with it.’”

Jok who is also a co-founder of the Juba-based Sudd Institute offered a hypothetical analysis of how this “politics of silence” could play out during a crisis. He warned that the perception of the government as an exclusive project of a few is creating a “pass the buck” mentality that shrinks all the way to the President’s doorstep.

While the public in Juba might dismiss the administration as a “Warrap government,” Jok warned that this disengagement could fracture even the President’s home state.

In such a scenario, he explained, communities in Tonj might deflect responsibility to Gogrial, arguing that Gogrial politicians have “abused power for far too long.” But the deflection would not stop there.

“They go to Gogrial and people will say, ‘no, no no, you go and ask the Awan people to deal with this,’” Jok said.

Ultimately, he warned, even the Awan community could distance themselves, pushing the burden solely onto Mayen, the President’s home village.

“They will be like, no… they have been the one who have milked the cow for too long, and now there is an impending disaster. Let them deal with it,” Jok said.

Jok cited the current quiet in key Dinka strongholds as a warning sign rather than an endorsement.

He pointed to the “growing feud” between Gogrial and Aweil following the arrest of businessman Benjamin Bol Mel, noting that Aweil communities feel “slighted” by the targeting of their figures.

Meanwhile, he observed that communities in Lakes and Jonglei have “simply just gone silent,” creating a political vacuum that leaves the government vulnerable.

This withdrawal, Jok argued, could provide an opening for the armed opposition. He noted that if the opposition can convince ordinary citizens that their fight is solely against the administration—and not the people—the public’s refusal to “stand in the way” could prove decisive.