Dangote Refinery IPO could push Nigeria’s stock market over $140b

Bismarck Rewane, a leading Nigerian economist, has projected that the listing of Aliko Dangote’s $20 billion refinery on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) could more than double the country’s stock market capitalization, potentially boosting it above $140 billion.

NGX could hit $140 billion valuation

Rewane, chief executive officer of Financial Derivatives Company and chairman of FCMB Asset Management Limited, who has more than 40 years’ experience in finance, said the listing could push Nigeria’s market value above N200 trillion ($140 billion). Currently, the NGX’s market capitalization is pegged at N105 trillion ($74 billion) at the time of drafting this report.

Speaking at a summit over the weekend in Lagos, Rewane described the listing as a milestone for Nigeria’s capital market, noting the size and scale of the refinery. “If the Dangote Refinery is listed at today’s valuations, we expect stock market cap to rise from N105 trillion ($74 billion) to over N200 trillion ($140 billion),” Rewane said. “This would not only deepen market liquidity but also position the Nigerian Exchange among the largest emerging-market bourses globally.”

Dangote Refinery plans public listing

Rewane began his career with the First National Bank of Chicago (later the International Merchant Bank Nigeria Limited) as general manager and treasurer. He has served on the boards of multiple companies, including FCMB Ltd, Lion Bank of Nigeria, Top Feeds Nigeria, Delta Packaging, Virgin Nigeria Airways, and Guinness Nigeria Plc, among others.

The projection comes as Dangote Petroleum Refinery prepares for a landmark initial public offering (IPO). British executive David Bird, appointed CEO in August 2025, said advisers, bankers, and lawyers are intensifying work ahead of the planned listing. “April will be extremely busy,” Bird said. “I shouldn’t be planning holidays at that time.”

Naira purchases, dollar dividends

The 650,000-barrel-per-day facility near Lagos, has already reshaped Nigeria’s fuel market. The listing will involve an initial placement with institutional investors, followed by an offer to retail shareholders, giving everyday Nigerians a chance to own part of the refinery. Dangote plans to sell 5 to 10 percent while retaining a controlling stake of 65 to 70 percent.

The group is designing the offering to attract local and international investors. Plans include allowing shares to be purchased in naira while paying dividends in dollars, supported by projected annual export revenue of about $6.4 billion from petrochemicals such as polypropylene and fertilizer.