Market analysts react to US-Israel strikes on Iran

By Scott Murdoch, Tom Westbrook, Rae Wee

The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran on Saturday, targeting its leadership and plunging the Middle East into a new conflict that President Donald Trump said would end a security threat and give Iranians a chance to topple their rulers.

The strikes put nearby oil-producing Gulf Arab countries on edge as fears of escalation grew, and Tehran responded by launching missiles towards Israel.

Some oil majors and top trading houses suspended crude oil and fuel shipments via the Strait of Hormuz because of the attacks, four trading sources said on Saturday.

VISHNU VARATHAN, HEAD OF MACRO REASEARCH, ASIA EX-JAPAN, MIZUHO, SINGAPORE:

“A broader state of spots of regional attacks/instability may be par for the course — in line with Iran’s warning. Oil prices are likely to remain elevated as production and passage remain prone to attacks and disruptions. OPEC may be under pressure to raise production to try and offset. But a 10-25% premium on oil is not outlandish — even without a blockade of the Straits of Hormuz, which is easily a 50% premium risk event.”

CHRISTOPHER WONG, STRATEGIST, OCBC, SINGAPORE:

“The strike raises geopolitical risk premia as markets head into Monday’s open. The immediate reaction function is fairly predictable: safe-haven assets such as gold are likely to see an upside gap, while oil prices may also firm on supply-disruption concerns. Risk assets and high-beta currencies … could face an initial bout of volatility, particularly if headlines suggest potential retaliation or regional spillovers.”

NICK FERRES, CIO, VANTAGE POINT ASSET MANAGEMENT, SINGAPORE:

“Energy is still inexpensive. That’s the obvious sector that rallies on Monday. And gold.”

SAUL KAVONIC, MST MARQUEE ENERGY ANALYST, SYDNEY:

“Early indications are of a broader scale attack on Iran, with counterattacks which could escalate to draw in multiple gulf countries. If the Iranian regime feel they face an existential threat, attempts to block the Strait of Hormuz cannot be ruled out. The US and allies will have military escort plans to try protect passage through the Strait.

“But if Iran were to manage to disrupt flows through the Strait, over 20% of global oil and LNG flows could be impacted. This could present a scenario three times the severity of the Arab oil embargo and Iranian revolution in the 1970s, and drive oil prices into the triple digits, while LNG prices could retest the record highs of 2022.

“The scope for intentional and unintentional escalation in these circumstances is broad and hard to predict. Initial oil market reactions will price in higher risk of various scenarios that may disrupt supply, from a more modest disruption to 2mmbbld of Iranian exports, to attacks on regional oil infrastructure, through to disruption of passage through the Strait of Hormuz in the most extreme scenario. This could add several dollars more to oil, poised for even higher price spikes if the conflict escalates.

“A full prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely. But even a partial disruption of flows, especially as some tankers avoid the region, could see several million barrels per day of oil disrupted which would still send oil over $100.”

Reuters