Africa should not pick sides in minerals race, says Zambia

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Zambia is refusing to pick sides in the race between global powers for critical minerals, its president said, arguing that resource-rich African countries should resist pressure to align politically in exchange for investment.

With copper prices still near record highs, Hakainde Hichilema told the FT that Africa’s second-biggest exporter of the red metal needs to focus on expanding its economy rather than choosing between Washington, Beijing or Brussels amid intense demand for minerals.

“When I’m in Beijing, I’m not against Washington. When I’m in Washington, we’re not against Beijing,” he said in a recent interview. “We want to make sure that we do business with anyone . . . in a manner that will deliver mutual benefits.”

Last week, Félix Tshisekedi, president of the Democratic Republic of Congo, dismissed senior executives at state miner Gécamines after they opposed the sale of copper and cobalt producer Chemaf to a US-backed consortium. The move underscored how strategic mineral deals are now entwined with competition between western and Chinese interests in Africa’s most mineral-rich nation.

Hichilema, who was elected in a wave of optimism in 2021, has pitched his country as a test case for whether Africa can attract long-term capital and avoid the policy volatility that has deterred investors in the past.

Policy stability and reforms during his presidency have revived a “comatose” mining sector, he said, adding that the country is on target to hit a goal of 1mn metric tonnes of annual output by the end of the year, up from around 890,000 tonnes at the end of 2025.

He said the global dash for minerals essential to the energy transition, defence and grid infrastructure had led to a “sea change”, with African governments now in far stronger negotiating positions with investors.

“It was [previously] a one-way traffic. Now we are talking of working together as partners . . . where investors see the bigger picture of the country’s vision, and not just rhetoric.” 

Zambia plans to lift copper output to 3mn tonnes annually by 2031, as global demand for the metal surges.

The ambitious goal — which would place the landlocked nation ahead of the DRC as the continent’s top copper producer — has meant reversing botched mine takeovers and reforming taxes that changed constantly under his predecessor Edgar Lungu.

In 2023, Hichilema’s government unwound an expropriation by his predecessor’s administration of the Konkola copper mines from Vedanta Resources, making it a condition that the company invested $1bn.

Hichilema said investors had responded by pouring more than $12bn into the sector since his administration took office.

Long a poster child of Chinese investment in Africa — Zambia recently moved to allow miners to pay taxes in renminbi — money is increasingly flowing from newcomers. United Arab Emirates’ International Resources has committed $1.1bn to the Mopani Copper Mines, in the country’s Copperbelt heartland. Barrick Mining is funding a $2bn expansion of the Lumwana copper mine in north-western Zambia.

Still, African countries have been divided on how to handle a more transactional approach to their critical minerals under Donald Trump’s US presidency. South Africa’s mining minister Gwede Mantashe, this month criticised a controversial deal, agreed in December, that gives US buyers preferential treatment for minerals sold by the DRC.

“We said [the DRC] must look into the interest of the continent, not self-interest of the DRC,” Mantashe told a South African newspaper.

A cornerstone of the Zambian government’s new strategy has been lowering certain mining taxes and royalties to attract investment. The move has been welcomed by producers but is politically sensitive as citizens grapple with living costs following a sovereign default during the pandemic.

Hichilema rejected charges that lower taxes had failed to translate into more jobs in a country where more than half the population lives in extreme poverty.

“You cannot get milk from a stone,” he said. “If you kill businesses through over-taxation, they will not be there to deliver revenue. We want to grow with the mines — and as they grow, the Treasury grows.”

The IMF expects Zambia’s GDP to grow by 5.8 per cent this year, up from an estimated 5.2 per cent last year as it is buoyed by strong copper prices and recovers from a severe drought.