a toxic mix in the Sahel

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Three years ago, Mali’s military junta expelled French troops, a two-fingered gesture to the old colonial power that was applauded by many in the country. In France’s place came Russian mercenaries promising protection for the junta and defeat of a dogged Islamist insurgency. Today, as al-Qaida-affiliated Jama’a Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) encircles the capital Bamako with a crushing fuel blockade, and with talk of yet another coup, it is clear the Russians have brought neither peace nor stability.

Almost without the world noticing, the Sahel has become the epicentre of global terrorism. More than half of terrorism-related deaths last year took place in the semi-arid strip south of the Sahara, according to the Global Terrorism Index, with groups affiliated with Isis and al-Qaeda responsible for most.

In neighbouring Burkina Faso, which is top of the terrorism list in terms of deaths, something similar is happening even if the regime itself is not yet teetering. There, the government of another leader who came to power in a coup, Ibrahim Traoré — whose nationalist rhetoric has made him a hero to many — controls less than half the country’s territory, with JNIM exerting authority over much of the rest.

It was Traoré who told his fellow African leaders to “stop behaving like puppets every time the imperialists pull the strings”. But Sahelian countries are in danger of swapping one kind of imperialism for another. Russian mercenaries, initially with Wagner and now with its replacement Africa Corps, have been linked with human rights abuses. In Mali, Russians have shown scant appetite for countering the Bamako siege and more for protecting gold mines.

Mali and Burkina, like Niger, have severed ties not only with France but also with the UN and the US. The three coup states have completed their isolation by walking out of the regional Economic Community of West African States. Their go-it-alone defiance is a dead end.

The fear among more prosperous coastal states is that militant Islam will spread south. Countries including Benin, Ivory Coast, Senegal, Togo and Ghana — many of which are doing relatively well economically — are rightly jittery. Nigeria, which has troubles of its own with a different set of militants, is also fearful of infection from Niger, with which it shares a long and fluid border.

It is in the west’s interest to help coastal states combat the threat. The west should supply intelligence, training and military co-operation where requested. Donald Trump’s unilateral threat to attack Nigeria if it doesn’t halt what he has mischaracterised as a Christian genocide is unhelpful. But even that could be turned into a more useful form of co-operation if Nigeria and other regional governments engage intelligently and manage to adapt Trump’s offer to their needs.

Europe has largely washed its hands of the Sahel, in France’s case for understandable reasons since it was so unpopular. But it cannot turn its back on the region entirely. If militancy spreads, it could be yet another reason for desperate young men to take to boats in search of a better future.

One area where it might profitably engage is by finding online strategies to counter the kind of Russian disinformation that has channelled youth frustration into anti-western, pro-military sentiment. Another is by providing more risk capital, including through the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. Jobs are the best inoculation against radicalism.

Ultimately, the only long-term answer to the volatile mix of Islamist militancy and Russian interference is effective government. That is mainly a job for the countries themselves. But if outsiders can provide constructive help, it is in their interest to do so.