Civil society warns of imminent full-scale war after Nyirol market bombardment

JUBA – A civil society organization has warned of a potential return to full-scale war following the bombardment of Lankien local market by the South Sudan People’s Defense Forces (SSPDF) in Nyirol County in South Sudan’s Jonglei State.

The Community Empowerment for Progress Organization (CEPO) says the airstrike which killed at least nine civilians, including women and children, and left 15 others injured, reflected continued failure by conflict parties to protect civilians.

The warning comes amid escalating clashes between the South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) and the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) in Jonglei State in recent weeks.

CEPO’s Executive Director Edmund Yakani, said the fighting is increasingly undermining civilian safety and constitutes serious human rights violations that could amount to war crimes under international law.

Speaking to Sudans Post, Yakani said the root cause of the conflict lies in a deep deficit of trust and confidence among the armed forces of parties signatory to the Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS), noting that political rigidity, lack of compromise, and unhealthy competition for political power have fueled the violence, leaving civilians exposed to repeated attacks.

The Executive Director further cautioned that the approaching dry season significantly increases the risk of South Sudan sliding back into full-scale war.

“Parts of the country have already been engulfed in fighting since March 2025, but if the leadership fails to intervene now, we could witness a nationwide escalation of violence,” he said.

According to CEPO’s early warning system, the likelihood of a return to full-scale conflict is now higher than the probability of maintaining the fragile stability achieved so far.

Yakani urged the government to urgently pursue inclusive dialogue and mediation, engaging not only parties signatory to the R-ARCSS but also non-signatory armed groups, to resolve political disagreements, rebuild trust, and safeguard civilians.

Since the outbreak of violence in March 2025, South Sudan has experienced sporadic fighting across several regions, including Jonglei, Upper Nile, and parts of Western Equatoria.

Thousands of civilians have been displaced, while markets, schools, and health facilities have been destroyed, further worsening the humanitarian situation. Analysts warn that without swift political intervention and genuine inclusive dialogue, the country risks descending into a large-scale and uncontrollable conflict.

Yakani stressed that the political situation is steadily deteriorating and warned that failure to act decisively could have catastrophic consequences for ordinary citizens.

“Immediate intervention through dialogue and mediation is not just necessary; it is critical to prevent further loss of life and protect South Sudan from a return to full-scale war,” he said.