Critical Minerals Top Trump 2.0 Goal

• As tariffs bite, U.S.-Africa relations redefine the continent’s trade with Washington.
• From DRC cobalt deposits to Mozambican gas potential, Trump’s “trade not aid” unleashes billions in U.S.-Africa opportunities.
• While USAID folded, DFC’s $5 billion Africa push signals massive investment wins for minerals and infrastructure.

As American tariffs erode export gains and billions of dollars in aid fade, today’s U.S.-Africa relations is a showcase of a steady shift toward high-stakes trade and investment in critical minerals, energy, and infrastructure, a strategy that is wired to counter China’s dominance while unlocking billions in opportunities for select countries.

According to Foreign Policy magazine, this pivot could continue redefine bilateral ties between the U.S. and Africa in 2026 amid volatility. In the shadow of renewed U.S. isolationism, Africa’s resource-rich markets appear at a vantage position to continue beckoning American investors with unprecedented urgency.

The Trade-First Doctrine Redefining U.S.-Africa relations

Today’s U.S. Africa policy under the second Trump administration prioritizes “trade, not aid,” as articulated in recent State Department briefings. Statistics show U.S. aid to Africa has plummeted 25 per cent since 2025, according to USAID reports, redirecting focus to commercial pacts. This aligns with efforts to secure supply chains for electric vehicles and semiconductors, where Africa holds 30 per cent of global critical minerals reserves, per the U.S. Geological Survey.

For investors, the key sectors in the new look U.S.-Africa relations to watch include energy and agriculture. The U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) has already unveiled fresh commitments, targeting $500 million in loans for African renewables, according to Bloomberg. In agriculture, U.S. companies such as Cargill are expanding partnerships, with USDA update highlighting a 15 per cent rise in U.S.-Africa agribusiness deals, driven by demand for sustainable sourcing.

At the moment, the countries in the spotlight include Angola and Zambia with the Lobito Corridor—a $1.6 billion rail link for copper and cobalt exports—receiving fresh U.S. backing. According to Reuters, DFC officials met Angolan counterparts to accelerate the project, aiming for operational status by mid-2026. The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), holding 70 percent of global cobalt, remains pivotal; U.S. envoys pushed for ethical mining reforms in Kinshasa discussions, per Al Jazeera.

In the energy industry, some of the key players to monitor are U.S. giant ExxonMobil, which is eying offshore gas in Mozambique, with current filings showing $2 billion in exploratory investments, according to the Wall Street Journal. In finance, BlackRock’s Africa-focused ETF is up 3 percent, signaling investor optimism amid policy shifts.

Critical Minerals: The New Battleground for U.S.-Africa Investment

Critical minerals dominate today’s headlines in U.S.-Africa trade relations globally. According to the International Energy Agency, global demand for lithium, cobalt, and graphite will triple by 2030, positioning Africa as indispensable ally in the international value chain. Increasingly, authorities in Washington are seeking to diversify from China, which controls 80 per cent of critical mineral refining enterprise, Brookings Institution analysis states.

Also of increasing interest in U.S.-Africa investment alignment will be sectors intersecting with AI. Already, U.S. tech giants such Tesla and Google are scouting African sources for battery metals. Statistics show U.S. imports of African cobalt rose 12 per cent in 2025, and today’s Commerce Department data projects a 20 per cent increase in 2026 deals. This ties into AI supply chains, where minerals power data centers.

Some of the prime destinations in Africa where U.S. capital may land in this investment line include Zambia’s copper belt. U.S. firms KoBold Metals, which is backed by techpreneur Bill Gates announced $150 million in Zambian exploration, according to CNBC. Furthermore, Tanzania’s graphite mines draw interest, with U.S. envoys negotiating access amid EU funding rows, per the Financial Times.

Other influential players that are likely to play critical role in U.S.-Africa investment relations are firms under the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP). This is a U.S.-led alliance that is pledging $300 million for African projects, according to State Department releases. In this arrangement, disclosures show that mining giant Rio Tinto, a key MSP member, is eyes DRC lithium.

For policymakers across economies in Africa, this means navigating tariffs. While Donald Trump’s proposed 10 percent tariffs on African imports could hike costs significantly, exemptions for strategic minerals may prevail, per Politico insights.

High-Yield Opportunities Amid Geopolitical Friction

With energy investments surge in U.S.-Africa relations, Russian influence looks set to face perhaps its toughest test yet. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, Africa’s untapped gas reserves could supply 20 per cent of U.S. LNG needs by 2030. Mozambique’s Rovuma Basin, where ExxonMobil is advancing a $20 billion LNG play per Reuters could emerge key project.

The Lobito Corridor, a rail system linking DRC mines to Angolan ports has secured $250 million in U.S. funding pledges according to the White House and this initiative is part of top infrastructure projects determining U.S.-Africa investment relations. This 1,300-km rail aims to slash export times by half, boosting trade efficiency.

In West Africa, Nigeria’s oil sector is also experiencing U.S. investment revival. For instance, energy major Chevron has extended leases amid $1 billion commitments, per Bloomberg.

In the Horn of Africa, Ethiopia’s Grand Renaissance Dam has also draws U.S. mediation, with Nile Basin talks calling for hydro-sharing, according to Al-Monitor.

Further on big infrastructure, U.S.’ Bechtel Corporation is bidding on African rail expansions, and has announced partnerships in Kenya, per Engineering News-Record. For fintech investors, digital infrastructure overlays— like Starlink’s Africa rollout—promise synergies, with 5G enabling mineral tracking.

Read also: The Year Africa’s Minerals Got Political: Winners, Losers, and the New Global Race for Critical Resources

Agriculture and Agribusiness: Untapped Markets for U.S. Capital

Agriculture remains a cornerstone of U.S.-Africa investment today, with climate-resilient tech in vogue. Statistics show U.S. agribusiness exports to Africa hit $3.5 billion in 2025, up 8 per cent, per USDA data released. Some of the sectors to prioritize include the use of Biotech seeds and irrigation with John Deere expanding dealer networks in Ghana, targeting $100 million sales, according to AgriBusiness Global.

Additionally, Kenya’s horticulture stands to thrive with U.S. firms like Corteva supplying drought-resistant maize to 500,000 farmers via USAID remnants, per Devex. South Africa’s wine exports face U.S. tariffs, but exemptions for organics could spur $200 million in deals, according to Wine Spectator.

Players: ADM invests in African soy processing, announcing $150 million in Egyptian facilities today, per Food Business News. For policymakers, this fosters food security; U.S. initiatives like Feed the Future, though scaled back, still channel $500 million annually.

Navigating Headwinds: Tariffs, Aid Cuts, and Geopolitical Rivalries

Today’s U.S.-Africa dynamics grapple with policy whiplash. Up to 10-20 per cent tariffs on African exports could slash $15 billion in trade, per IMF projections. Yet, carve-outs for minerals mitigate impacts, benefiting U.S. EV supply chains.

As tariff sting bites, today’s diplomatic cables show that South Africa is seeking BRICS alternatives according to Reuters. For investors, volatility breeds opportunity: Hedging via diversified portfolios in stable sectors like energy. Policymakers: Advocate for AGOA extensions to sustain $10 billion in duty-free access.

Sectors and Countries to Watch in 2026

• Critical Minerals: DRC, Zambia—watch MSP investments topping $1 billion.
• Energy: Mozambique, Nigeria—ExxonMobil’s $30 billion pipeline.
• Infrastructure: Angola’s Lobito Corridor—$2 billion U.S. commitments.
• Agriculture: Kenya, Ghana—Cargill’s $500 million expansions.
• Players: DFC, ExxonMobil, BlackRock—focusing on ESG-compliant deals.

Analysis of today’s developments affirm U.S.-Africa trade’s relationship is shifting from aid to investment led engagement. According to McKinsey, this could unlock $200 billion in annual value by 2030 with investors prioritising minerals and energy for 15-20 per cent returns.

Read also: Africa healthcare: Calls grow for self-reliance as foreign aid dries up