Is Tanzania’s 2027 Food Security Dream Realistic?

• About five years ago, the World Food Programme (WFP) projected that Tanzania was on course to become Africa’s breadbasket by 2027.
• The WFP, in liaison with AGRA set five year strategies for Tanzania to feed Africa.
• At the moment, Tanzania’s food self-sufficiency rate is up 124% with surplus exceeding four million tonnes.

Tanzania is set to become Africa’s breadbasket by 2027, the World Food Programme projected five years ago, with months to the projected timeline, is this vision realistic or was it overly optimistic?

It was in 2022, Rome, Italy, the world’s most revered cuisine capital that the World Food Programme (WFP) ironically chose to launch its ‘Food Security Country Strategic Plan 2022–2027,’ for Tanzania, a country that, while not starving, was then and still is now, struggling to attain food security, let alone “become Africa’s breadbasket,’ in the next 11 months.

“Tanzania is set to become Africa’s breadbasket by 2027. The key to making this vision a reality lies in active private sector engagement, unlocking investment potential in agriculture and agro-value chains,” was the sentiment that was shared by the World Food Programme Tanzania, Sarah Gordon Gibson at the 2023 ‘Opportunities for Investing in Local Economies’ workshop, organized jointly by World Food Programme, the European Business Group TZ and the American Chamber of Commerce in Tanzania.

However, it is one thing to seat back at a workshop held in a fancy tourist hotel with breakfast and lunch served, or to, hold a high delegation meeting in Italy (dining the world’s finest cuisines) and post or discuss respectively, about food security in a third world country, but it is a whole different ball game to realize said post or discussion on the ground, where it matters.

That been said, while Tanzania may not become the taunted ‘breadbasket for Africa’ as of next year, the country has made significant strides in improving its agricultural output capacity. However, it should be noted with clarity that when we say ‘agricultural output’ we are referring to millions of smallholder farmers, peasants to be clear, who make up more than 80 percent of the more than 61 million population of Tanzania.

“Approximately 80 percent of total arable land is used by smallholder farmers,” attests the Tanzania Ministry of Agriculture and “Farming is the mainstay of Tanzanian life, with more than 80 percent of Tanzanians relying on agriculture for their livelihoods,” notes the Global Hunger Index which also does not sugar coat the reality; “…95 percent (of land) is cultivated by smallholder farmers with holdings of between 0.9 and 3.0 hectares. These farmers use traditional methods and produce primarily for subsistence.”

Lets look at those figures again: “80 percent of Tanzanians are smallholder farmers using rudimentary methods and tools to produce for subsistence and own 0.9 to 3 hectares at most” these are the same peasants that are supposed to feed the rest of the continent?

The literature or rather, the rhetoric is fit for four star workshops and five star hotels meetings in Italy but not on the tough farms of Tanzania.

Also Read: Why Global Capital Is Moving to Africa’s Urban Property Markets

AGRA, WFP project Tanzania to feed Africa by 2027

The WFP was not alone in this over zealous projection; “Tanzania is set to take its role as a primary food producer in Africa by 2027,” dared assert Vianey Rweyendela, the Country Manager for AGRA in Tanzania. Now AGRA, the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA) has been around since 2006 and has issued numerous magnanimous promises as well. Here is one example that is directly related to our topic;

Speaking at the AGRA Tanzania 2023-2027 Strategy launch on 12 July 2023, in Dodoma the administrative capital (lobbying for policy in Parliament), Vianey Rweyendela, the AGRA Country Director confidently asserted that; “Come 2027, there will be nothing like poverty in this country. Tanzania will be feeding the rest of Africa and the region. I know this is possible.”

He also revealed that the AGRA strategy is “a result of over a year of extensive planning and collaboration involving diverse stakeholders.” That is to say that in just one year, AGRA came up with the five year plan that would raise Tanzania from subsistence agriculture using rudimentary methods and tools to a surplus producer capable of feeding the entire continent.

WFP Food Security Country Strategic Plan 2022–2027 for Tanzania

The AGRA Tanzania 2023-2027 Strategy just like the WFP Food Security Country Strategic Plan 2022–2027 for Tanzania, all claim to be “designed to position Tanzania as a self-sufficient entity in food production and distribution by the year 2027, with an extended vision to feed the African continent.”

However; “These farmers face many challenges including low productivity, dependence on rainfed agriculture, underdeveloped support facilities, inappropriate technology, impediments to food market access, and low levels of public expenditure,” notes the Global Hunger Index in its repot ‘Protecting Livelihood of Poor Farmers.”

The WFP itself admits that in Tanzania; “A significant share of the population remains malnourished, with high stunting (impaired growth due to under nutrition) and increasing rates of overweight, obesity, and vitamin and mineral deficiency,” and in fact “an estimated 59 percent of families cannot afford a nutritious diet.”

WFP further admits that; “agriculture provides a livelihood for 70 percent of the population, with women making up most of the sector’s labour force.”

So are these the women meant to ‘feed the continent’ as of next year? WFP answers this dilemma contending that; “Despite their participation, women often have limited access to land, credit and other resources – reducing their ability to produce and generate income and making them more susceptible to shocks.”

Adeel Malik, Professor of Development Economics at the University of Oxford, was a panelist at the Africa Investment Forum 2023 that was held from 8 to 10 November 2023 in Marrakesh, Morocco.

With the theme: “Agribusiness, Africa’s new wealth, should benefit from the attention of banks and institutional donors,” experts at the forum were unanimous; “ to unlock the potential of African agribusiness requires investment in infrastructure, innovation and value chain development,” none of which is achievable in a mere five year span.

“Agricultural entrepreneurs complain about the lack of long-term financing. The best they can get are one-year loans,” lamented Professor Malik. “The banks say that there is too much volatility in this sector. They are not willing to lend for more than a year at a time,” he explained, and was outright blunt as to the real problem that farmers face; “banks are poorly organized, if not organized against farmers who have to buy seeds, fertilizer and so on.”

However, all efforts must be recognized and commended, as the Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the Food Security Fact Sheet for Mainland Tanzania released in September 2024 showed that during the 2023/24 season the country produced 20.4 million tonnes of food, 19 per cent more than the previous year.

Worth noting here is that; “ This performance brought the food self-sufficiency rate to 124 per cent, with a surplus exceeding four million tonnes. Significant increases were recorded in staple crops, with maize production rising by 24.8 per cent and rice by 36.5 per cent,” reads the NBS fact sheet that was released in December 2025.

In conclusion, while Tanzania may not be able to feed Africa as of next year, the NBS says; “National reserve capacity has grown from 150,000 metric tonnes (MT) to 360,000 MT, with a target of three million MT by 2030.”

The WFP Food Security Country Strategic Plan 2022–2027 for Tanzania, which it says, despite funding gaps and climate impacts “…aims to combat poverty and food insecurity by building resilience, improving nutrition, fostering climate-smart livelihoods, and strengthening government systems, targeting vulnerable groups like refugees and smallholder farmers, with interventions focusing on sustainable food access, diversified diets, and market integration,” a mouthful indeed, just not a mouth full of food, unfortunately.