Israel’s Horn of Africa gamble raises tension with Arab and Muslim rivals

After three decades of relentlessly lobbying its neighbours and global powers to be recognised as an independent state, Somaliland can finally claim a victory.

But it came from an unexpected quarter — Israel — and it has drawn a widespread backlash from African, Arab and Muslim states who fear it sets a dangerous precedent for other breakaway regions and worry about the motivations of Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government.

The prime minister announced last week that Israel would become the first nation to recognise Somaliland’s claims, 35 years after the northern region of Somalia declared its independence.

He framed the move as being within the “spirit” of the US-brokered Abraham Accords, which led to the United Arab Emirates, Morocco, Sudan and Bahrain establishing diplomatic relations with Israel in 2020.

But even President Donald Trump’s administration — which has been publicly seeking to expand the accords — appeared surprised by Israel’s decision.

The US state department said it continued to recognise the territorial integrity of Somalia, “which includes the territory of Somaliland”.

When asked in an interview with the New York Post if the US would follow Israel’s lead, Trump appeared to rule it out — before saying “everything is under study”. “Does anyone know what Somaliland is, really?” he said.

Somaliland President Abdirahman Mohamed Abdullahi said in a statement that Hargeisa would join the Abraham Accords, calling it a step towards regional and global peace.

But Israel’s move was widely condemned by regional powers.

The African Union warned that any attempt to “undermine the unity, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Somalia . . . risks setting a dangerous precedent with far-reaching implications for peace and stability across the continent”.

Arab and Muslim states fear the move reflects a new assertiveness by Netanyahu to meddle in regional affairs in the wake of Hamas’s October 7 2023 attack on Israel — and that it will give Israel a strategic foothold in the Gulf of Aden, which borders the Red Sea and Arabian Peninsula.

More than 20 Arab, Muslim and African states issued a joint statement warning of the “serious repercussions of such [an] unprecedented measure”.

A potential quid pro quo for Somaliland — which declared its independence in 1991 after Somalia descended into civil war following the fall of dictator Mohamed Siad Barre — would be to allow Israel to establish a military presence in the region.

That could provide Israel with a staging post to launch attacks against Iranian-backed Houthis, who control much of northern Yemen. Israel has been conducting long-distance strikes against the rebels since they began firing missiles and drones at Israel and attacking ships in the Red Sea after Hamas’s attack.

Asher Lubotzky, a senior fellow at the Israel-Africa Relations Institute, an Israeli think-tank, said if there was no threat from the Houthis “there would be no recognition of Somaliland”.

“Israel realised that it had neglected this critical region — the Red Sea, Horn of Africa and east Africa generally . . . it had no intelligence on the Houthis and limited offensive capabilities,” said Lubotzky. “This had to change.”

Arab states oppose the Houthis but also worry that Israel’s assertiveness is a destabilising force in the region.

“Arab countries view Israel’s ties with African nations, including Somaliland, as a way for Israel to increase its influence in a region that is strategically important and become a new arena for broader regional rivalry,” said Sanam Vakil at Chatham House.

They have also harboured concerns that Israel has been trying to cajole African states to accept Palestinians from war-shattered Gaza.

Israel has previously approached east Africa governments, including Somalia — a Muslim state that is a member of the Arab League — about the possibility of relocating Palestinians from the strip, heightening fears that Netanyahu’s government is planning to forcibly displace Gazans.

In their joint statement, whose signatories included Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and Turkey, the Arab and Muslim states rejected “any potential link between such measures [Israel’s recognition] and any attempts to forcibly expel the Palestinian people out of their land”.

Somaliland has previously denied being in talks over resettling Palestinians.

The Horn of Africa has in recent years become a theatre of regional rivalry as competing powers have sought to develop a presence and influence in the region.

Turkey built its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu, the Somali capital, while the UAE — a notable absentee from the joint statement by Muslim and African states — has a base in Somaliland’s Berbera port.

DP World, the UAE’s port and logistics company, operates Berbera port.

Two years ago, Ethiopia, Somaliland’s closest regional partner, opened dialogue to formally recognise the breakaway region in return for a 50-year lease on a 20km strip of land around Berbera. But even Addis Ababa has yet to go as far as to formally recognise its neighbour.

In its decades-long bid for recognition, Somaliland has championed itself as a bastion of stability in a volatile region, with southern parts of Somalia still blighted by factionalism and the threat of the Islamist movement al-Shabaab, an affiliate of al-Qaeda.

It has established a diplomatic presence in several countries, including the UK and the US, and has in turn attracted consulates to its capital, Hargeisa, in large part because of its relative stability and safety.

Somaliland will be hoping that Netanyahu can persuade Trump to follow suit. But its alliance with Israel could also bring risks.

“The risk for Somaliland in taking this move is clearly greater than the risk Israel has taken. For Somaliland, it could now become a target for the Houthis and even al-Shabaab,” said Lubotzky. “But this was likely a calculated risk on their part . . . they really wanted recognition, with the hope that this breaks the dam for further recognition by other states.”