OPINION | Avoiding a new front: South Sudan’s vital interest in de-escalating Heglig tension

Let’s face it! The recent attack and escalation of hostilities in the disputed Heglig oil fields serve as a stark reminder for South Sudan that its traditional security and economic viability are inextricably linked to the stability of its northern neighbour, Sudan. The ongoing civil war in Sudan is spilling over, threatening to open a dangerous new front in a region already grappling with immense humanitarian and economic challenges.

For Juba, a purely neutral stance is becoming untenable, making a proactive diplomatic engagement to de-escalate tensions and secure critical oil infrastructure no longer a choice, but a national imperative. A stitch in time saves nine—early action taken by Juba could prevent a regional conflagration.

South Sudan is landlocked and almost entirely dependent on the infrastructure in Sudan to export its crude oil, which accounts for over 90 percent of its government revenue. The Heglig processing facility and the pipelines running north to Port Sudan are, quite literally, the nation’s economic lifeline.

The recent RSF capture of the facility on December 8, 2025, and the resulting shutdown of operations, declared as “force majeure” by operating companies like Petrolines for Crude Oil (PETCO), will definitely inflict significant financial damage. Every day the oil flows are halted, South Sudan loses millions of dollars in revenue, and Sudan misses vital transit fees.

The continuous disruption of the oil flow is a direct existential threat to South Sudan’s already fragile economy, leading to unpaid public sector salaries, hyperinflation, and a deepening humanitarian crisis.

This economic precarity means Juba has all its eggs in one basket, making any threat to the oil infrastructure a matter of national survival. The country’s economy has already contracted by an estimated 24 percent in FY25 due to previous pipeline disruptions. This precarious situation means South Sudan is constantly walking on thin ice whenever conflict erupts near the Sudan border.

In the face of the conflict, South Sudan has officially maintained a neutral position, keen to avoid being dragged into the Khartoum power struggle and offering humanitarian refuge to those fleeing the violence. This neutral stance is crucial for preserving its role as a potential mediator and preventing a renewal of its own historical border conflicts with Sudan.

However, recent events have forced Juba into a delicate diplomatic position. The RSF has publicly vowed to protect the oil infrastructure, claiming to act in the interest of the South Sudanese people. At the same time, the SAF-backed government in Port Sudan has ordered potential shutdowns in response to attacks, effectively using oil as a political weapon.

Already caught between a rock and a hard place, South Sudan’s government must perform a challenging balancing act: it needs to engage with all relevant actors—both the SAF-aligned government and the RSF forces now controlling the ground—to ensure the safety and resumption of oil operations without formally compromising its neutrality or inviting direct military confrontation.

The deployment of SSPDF forces to border areas to secure territory and disarm crossing SAF soldiers reflects Juba’s commitment to safeguarding its territorial integrity while managing the immediate spillover. This whole scenario presents a classic case of being caught between a rock and a hard place.

The Republic of South Sudan cannot afford to be a passive bystander watching its economy collapse. The current situation requires proactive diplomacy that extends beyond mere expressions of neutrality. South Sudan’s vital interest lies in the immediate de-escalation of military activity around the Heglig fields and the establishment of a robust, internationally monitored security mechanism, specifically for critical oil infrastructure.

Relying solely on external mediation efforts has proven ineffective thus far, as various international and regional initiatives struggle with coordination and consensus. South Sudan needs to leverage its unique position as both a neighbour and a directly affected economic partner to demand the protection of these shared assets. It is high time that Juba takes the bull by the horns and asserts its interests forcefully on the diplomatic stage.

The events in Heglig are a clear warning signal. To avoid a new front of conflict and an economic abyss, Juba must take a leading role in advocating for a secure oil corridor and an immediate cessation of hostilities in the border region. The time for decisive diplomatic action is now, before the situation spirals out of control and the window for a peaceful resolution slams shut.

About the author

Amaju Ubur Yalamoi Ayani, aka Amaju Joseph Ubur Ayani, is a teacher and political commentator. The views expressed here are those of his and do not represent the editorial stance of Sudans Post. He can be reached via amajuayani@gmail.com.