Peace and oil: Inside South Africa Deputy President’s visit to Juba

JUBA – South Africa’s Deputy President Paul Mashatile concluded a two-day working visit to South Sudan on Thursday, meeting with senior government officials, including President Salva Kiir, at the State House in Juba.

“The visit sought to take stock of the state of implementation of the 2018 Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (R-ARCSS),” Mashatile said before departing on Friday.

During the visit, Mashatile also held talks with Vice Presidents Benjamin Bol Mel and Rebecca Nyandeng, who oversee the Economic and the Gender and Youth Clusters, respectively. Discussions reportedly centered on consolidating peace and revitalizing the stalled political process.

However, it remains unclear whether the South African delegation met representatives of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement in Opposition (SPLM-IO), led by the detained and suspended First Vice President Riek Machar, who is currently facing trial on charges of murder and treason.

South Africa is one of the guarantors of the R-ARCSS, alongside Sudan and Uganda. Pretoria’s engagement in South Sudan’s peace process has largely been channeled through the African Union (AU) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), with former Deputy President David Mabuza previously serving as a Special Envoy. South Africa has played a key role in facilitating political dialogue, confidence-building, and reconciliation among the SPLM factions.

Yet beyond peace diplomacy, South Africa’s engagement in South Sudan is also driven by significant economic interests—particularly in the oil sector. The country controls Block B2 Exploration, also known as the Nile Orange Energy Project, through a joint venture between the South African National Petroleum Company (SANPC)—formed in 2025 through the merger of the Strategic Fuel Fund (SFF), PetroSA, and iGas—and South Sudan’s state-owned Nile Petroleum Corporation (Nilepet).

SANPC holds a 90 percent stake in the project, with Nilepet retaining 10 percent. Located in Jonglei State, Block B2 is estimated to contain up to 3.5 billion barrels of untapped crude, ranking among Africa’s largest frontier hydrocarbon basins.

The project stems from a 2019 Exploration and Production Sharing Agreement (EPSA) initially signed between SFF and Nilepet. Under the agreement, the six-year exploration phase focuses on geophysical surveys, seismic data acquisition, and exploratory drilling. After the merger, SANPC took over operations, pledging to support local training, community development, and women’s empowerment initiatives.

As of this year, exploration activities were said to be “advancing steadily” despite security challenges in the region. In March 2024, SFF completed South Sudan’s largest-ever aerial geophysical survey, covering 47,000 square kilometres of Block B2 to facilitate subsurface mapping. An environmental impact assessment (EIA) was expected to follow, with seismic surveys and initial drilling slated for late 2025 and full well drilling projected for 2026.

If successful, the venture could yield billions in export revenue for both countries, potentially supporting South Sudan’s goal of increasing national output to 350,000 barrels per day—though 90 percent of production would go to South Africa.

Block B2 lies within a highly sensitive ecological zone encompassing most of Badingilo National Park, parts of the Sudd wetlands, and the Shambe Nature Reserve. It also overlaps with one of the world’s largest terrestrial wildlife migrations, involving up to five million white-eared kob and 400,000 tiang, among other antelope species, moving between South Sudan and Ethiopia.

In response to environmental concerns raised by Daily Maverick in May, SANPC’s Executive Head of Communications, Jacky Mashapu, said due diligence was being observed.

“Due care is being taken to consider environmental footprints at different phases of our activities,” Mashapu said in a statement obtained by Sudans Post.

“Phase one focuses mainly on acquiring data and executing seismic work. Once that phase is completed, a comprehensive Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA) will be conducted for the next phase.”

South Africa and South Sudan also signed a preliminary agreement in 2019 to build a 60,000-barrel-per-day oil refinery in Pagak, Upper Nile State—part of a broader $1 billion investment plan in South Sudan’s petroleum sector. The refinery aims to process local crude for domestic consumption and exports to Ethiopia and other neighbouring countries.

While reports indicate little progress on the refinery, Pretoria remains keen to secure long-term oil supplies amid global energy uncertainties. South Africa’s $1 billion investment pledge underscores the strategic importance it attaches to South Sudan.

But political instability continues to threaten these economic ambitions. With the peace agreement facing mounting pressure, Pretoria appears to be leveraging its status as a guarantor to safeguard both the R-ARCSS—and its own billion-dollar interests.