Violence looms as thousands of rival forces converge on Jonglei

JUBA – South Sudan is facing a heightened risk of renewed large-scale fighting as thousands of government troops, opposition forces and allied armed youth converge on Jonglei State, turning the region into both a potential terminus for advancing rebel forces and, simultaneously, a launch point for the opposition objective of “taking the war to Juba” and other government-controlled areas.

The South Sudan People’s Defence Forces (SSPDF) have deployed substantial reinforcements into Jonglei over the past week, according to senior military officials and security sources. The buildup includes units from the 3^rd, 5^th and 12^th infantry divisions, alongside the Agwelek division commanded by the army’s deputy chief of defense forces for disarmament and mobilization, Johnson Olony Thabo.

Since their arrival in Jonglei, the incoming government forces have camped at Baidit, the administrative headquarters of Baidit Payam in Bor County, located about 20 kilometres east of Bor town, according to geolocated footage of the state-owned South Sudan Broadcasting Corporation (SSBC) analyzed by Sudans Post.

“The deployments are intended to secure key population centres and prevent further deterioration of the security situation,” a senior government military official told Sudans Post on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly. “We are reinforcing Jonglei to contain the threat and protect the people.”

The army chief, Paul Nang, was filmed earlier this week addressing large number of forces, which Sudans Post geolocated to Baidit. In remarks to the troops, he said they had been given seven days to “end” what he described as a rebellion, signaling the government’s readiness to escalate operations. As of Saturday morning, there is no reported fighting in Jonglei.

The military buildup follows a series of opposition advances in Jonglei and neighbouring states. Last week, the Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition (SPLA-IO) captured Pajut, the administrative headquarters of Pajut Payam in Duk County, about 170 kilometers northeast of Bor town, days after clearing government forces from much of the Greater Akobo.

Clashes have also edged closer to the capital. In Central Equatoria State, SPLA-IO forces this week took control of Panyume Payam in Morobo County, about 133 kilometres south-west of Juba. Despite government rejection of the opposition account, Sudans Post has geolocated conflict related footages of the situation in Panyume confirming rebel claims.

Opposition commanders say the Jonglei deployments form part of a wider mobilisation involving fighters from across the Greater Upper Nile region, which includes Jonglei, Unity and Upper Nile states. Unity lies west of Jonglei, while Upper Nile borders it to the north.

In a statement dated Jan. 23, a spokesperson for the White Army, an armed youth group largely drawn from Nuer communities, said an initial batch of approximately 3,000 SPLA-IO fighters from Division Three had arrived in Walgak, 75 kilometers northeast of the frontline, with a second wave – including “special forces” and an estimated 9,000 White Army fighters – expected to deploy to the frontline through Lankien. Sudans Post cannot independently verify the numbers.

The statement said commanders ordered the forces to halt and regroup before coordinating movement toward Bor town, citing the need for unified command and operational discipline. It also advised civilians in Duk, Panyigor, Puktap and Bor to remain in their homes, raise white flags and avoid military installations.

At the same time, commanders of White Army units from Jikany areas were reported to be crossing the Sobat River toward Munloal to reinforce Pajut and surrounding areas, with the statement describing Juba as the “final” destination.

Government officials have repeatedly accused the SPLA-IO of colluding with the White Army, an allegation both groups have at times denied, saying the armed youth operate independently. The White Army fought alongside the SPLA-IO during the 2013–2018 civil war but has since fragmented and, at times, clashed with both government and opposition forces.

A second government security source warned that the proximity of rival forces has significantly increased the risk of confrontation.

“With so many armed actors converging on the same corridors, even a minor incident could rapidly escalate,” the source said.

Opposition forces have also crossed from Unity State into Jonglei using boats from Panyijiar County, an opposition commander said, underscoring the extent to which seasonal flooding has reshaped movement and logistics in the area. The commander said SPLA-IO fighters and allied armed youth used river routes to move eastward into Jonglei, abandoning positions in low-lying areas rendered largely impassable by years of flooding.

Unity State offers limited strategic value as a platform for advancing toward Juba. Prolonged flooding has constrained maneuver, disrupted supply lines and reduced the effectiveness of large formations, while the state’s geography provides no direct corridor to the capital. Even if opposition forces were to secure gains in Unity, such victories would deliver little leverage over Juba.

‘Taking war to Juba’

Much of South Sudan’s conflict since independence has been concentrated in the Greater Upper Nile region, particularly in Upper Nile and Unity states, with fighting later spreading into parts of Equatoria.

Years of warfare in these largely rural areas have fostered a perception among some armed groups and affected communities that the burden of the conflict has fallen disproportionately on them, while towns in President Kiir’s support base in Bahr el Ghazal and the capital have remained relatively insulated.

That perception has contributed to a growing belief among some opposition fighters and allied armed youth that Jonglei should serve not as the final battlefield, but as a gateway for extending pressure southward. In this context, Jonglei is viewed as the geographic and strategic hinge for “taking the war to Juba” and, potentially, toward Kiir’s home region of Bahr el Ghazal.

Jonglei’s geography underpins this logic. The state links Upper Nile and Unity across White Nile and Sobat rivers through boats to the Bor–Juba road, one of the country’s most critical arteries for military movement, trade and political control. Sustained instability along this corridor would significantly compress the government’s defensive depth around the capital.

Another factor is also the role of political rhetoric and community dynamics in shaping the current escalation. Statements by senior officials in the past describing entire counties as “hostile” have been widely interpreted in conflict-affected areas as collective labelling, reinforcing grievances and hardening local loyalties.

In April last year, Cabinet Affairs Minister Martin Elia Lomuro said nine of South Sudan’s 16 Nuer-majority counties were hostile to the government, citing links between armed youth and the SPLA-IO. While framed as a security assessment, such language has contributed to perceptions of exclusion and has been used by armed actors to justify mobilisation.

The convergence now unfolding reflects overlapping strategies rather than a single coordinated offensive. Government efforts to secure approaches to the capital, opposition attempts to break geographic isolation, and community movements shaped by grievance and survival have collided in Jonglei, raising the risk that miscalculation rather than intent could trigger a broader confrontation.